Sports wagering is often very profitable if a person know the secrets and techniques the “smart money” bettors apply to consistently make money. One of the greatest secrets that smart money bettors use will be knowing when NOT to bet.
Here’s a ideal example. My partner and i analyzed the particular Western world Va vs. Louisville match, and concluded that West Florida had the edge in the sport. However , I also recognized that there have been a great deal of random and capricious factors, and recommended to my clients that they accomplish not bet on this specific game. Here is my analysis I released before the game:
West Va or Louisville
This game possesses all the signs of being one involving the very best games connected with the year, with both teams coming into the game 7-0. It’s #3 rated West Virginia against. #5 ranked Louisville, both equally with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s activity was a classic, with Rest of the world Virginia coming back from getting down massive in the independence day 1 / 4 to winning around overtime.
So what’s the action search like this year?
In the event this match were appearing played from a new neutral field, West Va would probably be a 4-6 point favorite. Since this game is in Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if this makes sense…
West Virginia is definitely on an unprecedented throw. They haven’t lost considering April. 1, 2005, intending 14-0 since they lost to Va Tech. In the last two months they’re 13-5 ATS too. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last 9 games overall, and 8-2 OBTAIN THE in their last 10 HIGHWAY games.
All these are some very impressive stats that tilt the particular scales in favor of WVU with regard to tonight’s games. Plus, typically the included benefit is that WVU is definitely GETTING +1 point. This could not look like significantly, but in a near match-up such as this, that excess point can make the change between a push and even a loss.
But you may be wondering what regarding Louisville?
Louisville’s numbers are usually almost as good as WVU’s -except when the idea comes to Louisville covering the point spread. In their last 10 games, Louisville is only 4-6 ATS. That said, Louisville is even now 7-3 ATS into their final 10 home video games.
In addition to if you’re leaning to WVU, here’s a intimidating stat… Louisville hasn’t lost at your home since December 16, 2003! During this recent run Louisville is hitting 49. five points every game in your own home, while averaging only letting go of 15. seven points every game at home. In case an individual failed to do the mathmatical, that means given that their last home decline they already have averaged beating his or her opposing team simply by about 34 details per game.
Even greater outstanding, the average line in these games has only been recently 21 points. That methods Louisville has beaten the particular get spread around, on average, by simply 13 factors per online game at home due to the fact the year 2003.
Wow… how can a person go against that?
Here’s how…
Most of those stats were being established during the 2006 season. There is much surprise, 2006, Louisville has been closer to very good than great. They’ve got recent games through which they have already only scored 36, 23, 24 points. And www.massholemommy.com weren’t against Kentkucky St. or Michigan. These people had been against Cincinnati, Syracuse, in addition to Kansas St.
To put it succinctly of which this is still the close video game to call. Nevertheless the things i look for is West Virginia’s defense to carry the time. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, and even Kansas St. can all of hold Louisville under 25 points, then there’s simply no purpose to think WVU can’t hold them to typically the low to core 20’s. My honest advice will be to lay off this game and not necessarily bet at all. There usually are better video games this weekend with more simple benefits.
The final score of the game was Louisville 44, West Las vegas 34. Lousiville won because West Las vegas had 6 fumbles plus allowed Lousiville to go back a good punt for a new TD. The results was the fact that West Virginia’s border has not been so big they will could very well still win right after making so many mistakes. By simply not betting on this particular sport, people really serious concerning gambling saved money they can offer better apply on forthcoming games.