Sports wagering can be very profitable if an individual know the tricks the particular “smart money” bettors work with to consistently make dollars. One of the greatest secrets that wise money bettors use is usually knowing when NOT to bet.
Here’s a perfect example. My spouse and i analyzed the particular Western California vs. Louisville match, and concluded of which West Florida had typically the edge in the activity. However , I also came to the realization that there was a whole lot of random and unforeseen factors, and recommended to my clients that they do not gamble on this specific game. Here is my analysis I released prior to the game:
West Florida versus Louisville
This sport offers all the symptoms of being one involving the best games involving the year, along with each teams coming into the sport 7-0. It’s #3 rated West Virginia versus. #5 ranked Louisville, each together with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s video game was a classic, with Rest of the world Virginia coming backside from staying down huge in the 4th fraction to winning around overtime, however,.
So what’s the sport look like this year?
In case this match were as played in the neutral field, West California would probably be a 4-6 position favorite. Since this game is in Louisville, WVU is a 1-point underdog. Let’s see if can make sense…
West Virginia will be on an unprecedented rotate. These people haven’t lost given that July. 1, 2005, proceeding 14-0 since they dropped to Florida Tech. Inside the last two times they’re 13-5 ATS likewise. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last 9 activities overall, and 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 ROAD games.
These types of are some very extraordinary stats that tilt typically the scales in favor associated with WVU with regard to tonight’s online game. Plus, the particular added in benefit is that WVU is usually GETTING +1 point. This could not look like very much, but in a near match-up this way, that extra point might make the big difference between some sort of push and even a loss.
But you may be wondering what concerning Louisville?
Louisville’s statistics are generally almost as good while WVU’s -except when that comes to Louisville within the point spread. In their particular past 10 games, Louisville is just 4-6 ATS. https://k-oddsportal.com/euro88/ said, Louisville is even so 7-3 ATS into their final 10 home video games.
Together with if you’re leaning towards WVU, here’s a scary stat… Louisville hasn’t lost in your own home since Dec eighteen, the year 2003! During this present run Louisville is averaging 49. some points each game in the home, while averaging only stopping 15. seven points per game in home. In case anyone don’t do the mathmatical, that means given that their very own last home damage they already have averaged beating their particular adversaries by about 34 things per game.
Even greater amazing, the average line during these games has only been 21 points. That methods Louisville has beaten the get spread around, on average, by 13 factors per online game at home due to the fact 2003.
Wow… how can an individual go against that?
Here’s the way…
Many of those stats ended up established during the july 2004 season. This season, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to good than great. They also have got recent games by which they also have only scored 35, twenty three, 24 points. And these video games weren’t against Kentkucky E. or Michigan. These people had been against Cincinnati, Syracuse, plus Kansas St.
Basically that this is still the close video game to contact. Although the things i look regarding is West Virginia’s defense to carry the time. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, in addition to Kansas St. can just about all hold Louisville under 30 points, then there’s zero cause to think WVU can’t hold them to the particular low to mid 20’s. My honest advice is definitely to lay off that game and definitely not guess at all. There happen to be better video games this end of the week with more clear-cut strengths.
The final score with this game was Louisville forty-four, West California 34. Lousiville won because West Florida had 6 fumbles together with allowed Lousiville to gain a new punt for a new TD. The results was that will West Virginia’s border wasn’t so big that they can could very well still win after doing so many mistakes. By way of not betting on that activity, people critical with regards to gambling saved money that they can put to better make use of on coming games.